Recent Study on Mathematical Model of Zoonotic Influenza Subtype A (H7N9) Spread in Human Population

This paper deals with the dynamics of human infection by zoonotic influenza of type H7N9 both in
birds and in humans. The majority of human cases of A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) infection have been
associated with direct or indirect contact with infected live or dead poultry. Controlling the disease in
the animal source is critical to decrease risk to humans. H7N9 has potential to evolve in a global
threat, right now it has one severe limitation that restricts its potential to spread. A mutation to the
virus can increase the infectiousness of zoonotic influenza and its risk to become pandemic influenza.
We have formulated a mathematical model of avian influenza’s effect on the human and bird
population. A basic reproduction number for both the human and bird population has been computed,

and
respectively, therefore we have proved that the model is locally and globally asymptotically
stable for disease –free equilibrium points when basic reproduction number for both populations is <1.
Also proven is the endemic equilibrium point, which is globally asymptotically stable in the bird
population when
> 1. Extensive numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis are carried out for
various parameters of the model. The effects of Vaccination, Sequestration and Recovery are critically
analyzed and divided into their respective classes. The study model yields satisfactory results as
evidenced by the simulations and may be used for the prediction of future situations of epidemic in
country wise. We utilize real data at these various scales and our model allows one to generalize our
predictions and make better suggestions for the control of this epidemic. Our next research will be
based on consideration of hidden factors by geographical reason that impact the immunity, birth rate,
and death rate.